The government wants 600,000 heat pumps installed per year by the end of the decade. So when the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero published Q1 2026 retrofit data showing 10,693 heat pump installations — down 22% on the same period in 2025, and 18% lower than Q4 2025 — the headlines were not kind. “Heat pump rollout stalls despite subsidy boost” was a fairly representative take.
The numbers are real. But if you’re a homeowner trying to decide whether now is a good time to go for a heat pump, or you’re in the trade and wondering what to make of the market, the picture is more nuanced than a simple “UK rejects heat pumps” narrative.
What the data actually shows
The Q1 2026 figure covers retrofit installations — heat pumps replacing existing gas boilers or oil heating systems in homes that already exist. It doesn’t include new builds, where the Future Homes Standard is pushing heat pumps in at construction stage. The new-build numbers don’t hit this dataset.
The drop from Q4 2025 is partly seasonal. Heat pump installations peak in spring and autumn, when heating demand is lower and homeowners are more willing to have a system temporarily out of action. Q1 — January through March — is traditionally the slowest quarter for retrofit work. The year-on-year drop is more meaningful, and it’s real.
Two factors are driving it. First, there’s been a pattern of households waiting to see what the Warm Homes Plan would offer before committing. If a better grant scheme is coming, it makes sense to delay an expensive purchase. That logic was particularly strong through late 2025 and early 2026, when the government was making big announcements about the Warm Homes Plan but the actual delivery mechanics were still unclear. Some households who would have used the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) sat on their hands.
Second, there’s an installer capacity issue that cuts the other way. The UK simply doesn’t have enough trained heat pump engineers. Approved installers are backed up. In some regions, lead times for new installations ran to three to five months in late 2025. Some of what should have appeared in Q1 2026 figures will turn up in Q2 when those jobs get completed.
The grant landscape hasn’t actually got worse
Here’s the thing that often gets lost in the coverage: the Boiler Upgrade Scheme currently offers £7,500 for an air source heat pump and £7,500 for a biomass boiler. That’s the same as it was in 2024. There’s also the Great British Insulation Scheme for eligible households, and the Warm Homes: Local Grant programme for lower-income owner-occupiers.
What has changed is the expectation that something better is coming. The government has talked about a £9,000 Warm Homes grant, and some of that has started flowing through local authority delivery. But the rollout is patchy — very available in some areas, not yet live in others. The disconnect between the announcement and the delivery is creating hesitation.
The practical upshot: if you’re eligible for the current BUS grant and you have a quote you’re happy with from a reputable installer, there’s no strong reason to wait. The Warm Homes Plan delivery is genuinely uncertain in its timing. Waiting for a slightly larger grant that might arrive in 18 months while paying gas bills in the meantime is often not the better financial decision.
Why installations are still harder than they should be
The grant covers a meaningful chunk of the cost, but not all of it. A typical air source heat pump installation — including the unit, installation labour, any necessary pipe upgrades, and a hot water cylinder if you don’t already have one — runs to £10,000–£16,000 before the grant. After the £7,500 deduction, that’s still £2,500–£8,500 out of pocket. For a lot of households, that’s a significant sum even with the grant.
The other friction point is the house. Heat pumps work best in well-insulated homes with underfloor heating or larger radiators. Many UK homes have neither. The survey process that precedes installation often reveals that insulation needs doing first, or that radiators need upgrading — costs that aren’t covered by the BUS grant and that push the total outlay higher. That’s not a problem with heat pumps themselves, but it is a barrier to adoption for homes that haven’t been retrofitted at all.
The most effective installs happen in homes where the groundwork has been done: loft insulation in place, cavity or solid walls addressed, and ideally underfloor heating on at least the ground floor. If you’re starting from scratch on all of these, the sequencing matters. Insulation first, then heat pump — you’ll get a smaller, cheaper unit and better running costs.
What this means if you’re considering one
The drop in Q1 figures shouldn’t put you off if your home is suitable. It mostly reflects policy uncertainty and seasonal patterns, not some discovered problem with the technology itself. Heat pumps installed in well-prepared UK homes are performing well — SPF (seasonal performance factor) figures of 2.8 to 3.5 are consistently reported for properly commissioned systems, which means they’re producing 2.8–3.5 units of heat for every unit of electricity consumed.
At current electricity prices, that doesn’t necessarily make heat pumps cheaper to run than gas right now — electricity remains significantly more expensive per kWh than gas in the UK, and the government’s failure to rebalance these rates is a genuine policy problem that has slowed uptake. But as the electricity grid decarbonises, and as the government eventually addresses the electricity/gas price ratio, the economics improve over the lifetime of a system installed today.
The 22% drop is a setback for the government’s targets. It’s not a reason for individual households to dismiss heat pumps — especially if you’re in a well-insulated home, you’re replacing an old oil boiler (where the economics are already compelling), or you’re currently paying above-average rates for gas.
Worth checking: the Simple Energy Advice helpline (0800 444 202) is the quickest route to a grant eligibility check and a list of MCS-certified installers in your area.